Cash-flow forecasting is not a promise that every customer will pay on the exact date written down. It is a disciplined view of what may happen when expected receipts, known commitments and realistic timing are recorded together.
Start with the opening position
Use the actual bank position, then identify money already committed. A balance that includes payroll, tax, supplier bills, rent, stock or finance payments is not necessarily free cash.
| Forecast line | Include | Do not assume |
|---|---|---|
| Customer receipts | Invoices, sales receipts, agreed instalments and realistic payment dates | Every invoice will be paid on its due date |
| Business costs | Supplier bills, payroll, rent, stock, finance and recurring commitments | An unconfirmed amount is zero |
| Owner movements | Planned drawings or capital movements where relevant | Personal and business cash can be silently mixed |
| Uncertainty | A clearly labelled assumption or separate scenario | A hidden adjustment makes the forecast safer |
Keep it rolling
At the end of each week, replace forecasts with actual results, move the horizon forward, add new commitments and explain the material changes. Assign a next action to overdue money, missing evidence or a large uncertain cost.
Keep profit and cash separate
A profitable sale may use cash before it is collected, while a cash receipt may arrive before all costs are visible. Link the profit and cash views, but do not use one as a substitute for the other.
Construction and trades: specialist addition where applicable
Project businesses may add applications, certification, retention, CIS and scope-change timing to the core forecast. Record those items as specialist lines or assumptions; they do not replace ordinary customer receipts, supplier commitments, payroll and tax timing.
Fictional example
A retailer expects £12,000 of card and account-customer receipts in week 3, but has £4,000 stock, £2,500 supplier and £1,800 payroll-related payments due first. If an account payment moves to week 5, the forecast makes the timing gap visible early enough to review collection and non-essential commitments. It is not a recommendation to delay tax, payroll or contractual payments.
Related FoxSums resources
- Credit Control Checklist: Getting Paid on Time
- 13-Week Cash-Flow Forecast
- Busy but Still Under Cash-Flow Pressure?
- Cash Buffer Calculator
Next step
Download the 13-week forecast and begin with known receipts, payroll, supplier payments and tax commitments.
Important
General information only. Check the facts and current official guidance for the business’s circumstances.
Sources and review
- Evidence check date: 2 November 2026.
- FoxSums operational guidance. This resource does not make a tax, legal or regulatory determination.